ChurnMiserWhat is churn quietly costing your store?
Six numbers straight out of your Shopify analytics. In return: what churn takes, what a repeat customer is really worth to you, and what replacing lost customers costs in ad spend. No signup, and the arithmetic is shown in full.
Revenue from customers who never come back
$0
of your $0 annual revenue — earned once, then gone
Free either way. No credit card, no spam.
A repeat customer is worth
$0
A one-time buyer is worth
$0
once, minus what it cost to find them
Your cost per new customer
$0
Yearly spend replacing churned customers
$0
ad money spent standing still
What if 5 more of every 100 first-time buyers became regulars?
+$0/yr
These are estimates from six inputs. ChurnMiser reads your actual store data, and shows you the specific customers behind these numbers, about two weeks before they are gone for good.
How the math works
Every figure this calculator returns is arithmetic on the six numbers you typed in. Nothing is benchmarked against other stores, and nothing is modelled or forecast. Here is each step, in the order the calculator runs it.
Annual revenue. Orders per month × average order value × 12. This is the baseline everything else is measured against.
Revenue from customers who never come back. Shopify's returning customer rate tells you what share of your orders come from people who have bought before. The remainder is bought by first-timers. Multiply annual revenue by that remainder and you have the slice of your year that is earned once and then gone. It is the headline number because it is usually far larger than merchants expect, a store at a 24% returning rate is earning roughly three quarters of its revenue from people it will probably never sell to again.
What a repeat customer is worth. Average order value × orders per repeat customer per year. The calculator also shows this at your gross margin, because revenue you keep matters more than revenue you book. This is a straightforward annual figure from your own numbers, not a predicted lifetime value, see the note below on why that distinction matters.
Cost per new customer. Monthly ad spend ÷ the number of first-time orders in a month. It is an approximation: it treats each first-time order as one newly acquired customer, and it attributes all acquisition spend to them. If your ads also retarget existing customers, your true cost per new customer is a little lower than this.
The churn tax. Your annual ad spend (monthly spend × 12), multiplied by the share of buyers who do not return. In other words: of the customers your ad budget bought this year, this is what you paid for the ones who will not buy again. This is the number that tends to change behaviour, because unlike the headline figure it is not theoretical revenue, it is money already leaving your account every month. One caveat, this uses your returning order rate as a stand-in for the share of customers who return. Those two are close for most stores but not identical, so treat this line as the right order of magnitude rather than an exact figure.
The what-if. If five more of every hundred first-time buyers became regulars, each of those customers would go from a single order to a full year of repeat orders. The calculator multiplies that difference across a year. It is arithmetic on your inputs, not a promise about what any tool will achieve.
The reason churn is expensive is rarely the lost order itself. It is that the acquisition cost was already paid, and it bought a single transaction instead of a relationship. That is why the churn tax line is usually the one merchants react to.
What this calculator is not
It is not a prediction, and it is not a lifetime value model. It takes six averages and shows you what they already imply. Averages hide a lot: two stores with an identical 24% returning customer rate can have completely different retention problems, one losing customers steadily from month two, the other keeping most customers for a year and then losing them all at once. A calculator cannot tell those apart, because the six numbers are identical in both cases.
Seeing which of those two stores you are requires per-customer order history, which is exactly what the free retention audit and ChurnMiser itself work from. If you want to go deeper on the underlying formulas first, the blog covers how to calculate churn rate, repeat purchase rate, and retention versus acquisition cost.
Frequently asked questions
What counts as churn for a Shopify store?
Ecommerce churn is not a cancelled subscription, it is a customer who bought once and never came back. Because there is no cancellation event, churn on Shopify is inferred: a customer is treated as churned once they are well past the point where a customer like them would normally have reordered. That is why this calculator works from your returning customer rate rather than from a cancellation count.
Where do I find these numbers in Shopify?
Orders per month, average order value and returning customer rate all live in Shopify admin under Analytics, then Reports. Average order value and returning customer rate each have their own named report. Orders per repeat customer per year is not a native Shopify report, so estimate it from your own reorder pattern, three to four times a year is typical for most stores. Ad spend and gross margin come from your ad platforms and your own costs.
Is a returning customer rate of 24% good?
For most Shopify stores the returning customer rate sits somewhere between 20% and 30%, so 24% is unremarkable rather than alarming. Consumable and replenishable categories such as coffee, supplements and skincare should run well above that range, while high-ticket one-off purchases such as furniture will sit below it and that is normal. Compare yourself to your own trend over time before comparing yourself to a benchmark.
Are these results a prediction of my revenue?
No. Every figure this calculator returns is arithmetic on the six numbers you entered, and the page shows you the working. Nothing is benchmarked, modelled or forecast. It tells you what your current numbers already imply, not what will happen next. ChurnMiser itself predicts one thing only, per-customer churn risk, and it does that from a store's real order history rather than from six averages.
Does ChurnMiser calculate customer lifetime value?
No, and that is deliberate. Calculating, tracking and forecasting lifetime value are all outside what ChurnMiser does. Its segmentation and analytics are built from real Shopify order data, what customers have actually spent, rather than from modelled estimates. What ChurnMiser does instead is grow lifetime value by reducing churn, by scoring which customers are about to lapse and winning them back before they do.
See the actual customers behind these numbers
This calculator works from six averages. The free retention audit works from your store's real order history, answer a few questions and get a personalized revenue-leak report showing exactly where customers are slipping away. No credit card.
Take the free retention audit →Or install ChurnMiser from Shopify and start scoring customers tonight.